Humanoid robots…
If I were to ask you to name a few, top of mind, how far will you get?
Let me give it a shot:
1. Data
2. R2-D2
3. C-3PO
4. Optimus Prime
5. Bender
6. Wall-E
7. HAL 9000
8. T-800
9. KITT (Yes, I am THAT old)
10. Eva
Let me know a few cool other ones in the comments, will you?
Now, what’s the story here that I am trying to get across…
Us humans have always been obsessed with building bipedal robots. I wrote extensively about them (Discussing the first robot suicide in history – AI based BattleBots! – Embodied AI in robotics – Meet the NEO Beta – the most spectacular, and creepiest robo humanoid! – Anticipating AI’s next move • article ④ •).
It is like we have got this itch that we just cannot scratch. Making machines that walk like us, talk like us… It puts ourselves in God mode, I think.
In our sci-fi dreams, we have gone from clunky metal men (DANGER! Will Robinson, DANGER!) to AI-powered helpers. The goal is always to make them useful, and maybe a little charming, and hopefully not the kind that would Skynet us. Because if there’s one thing that we love more than making robots, and that is is imagining them being in charge, just to see what happens!
Before we start!
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The rise of the robo-workers
According to the investment firm ARK Investment Management, these machines could rake in roughly $24 trillion in revenues. Picture that: trillions split between helping out around the house and revolutionizing factories.
… and putting people out of a job.
So don’t get your hopes up too high to have a Rosie the Robot just yet.
ARK’s got the receipts, and their math says robots might just outdo human workers in cost and efficiency. This surely is the plot of every sci-fi movie coming to life, and this time it even has a budget.
Think about it: we are post-COVID, and companies are scrambling to bring people back in the office. And then there’s the labor shortage. Well, not actually a shortage, it’s more of a mismatch between supply of the right skills and the demand for the lesser skills. And of course there is the continuous striving for more and more profit.
All these factors are pushing businesses to consider AI, and also robots. And this time it is not so much as a futuristic whim, but as a cold, hard production factor. A robot can work 16-hour shifts (needs charging perhaps and a bit of maintenance), doesn’t need bathroom breaks, and doesn’t get tired or demand a raise.
ARK’s research shows that the U.S. manufacturing sector employs around 12 million people who collectively work 23 billion hours per year, and they are pulling in about $785 billion in wages.
See this dystopian business case getting a firm foothold in the minds of these bankers.
They are thinking, what if we could swap out all these humans for robots (that can work twice as much), we would only need around 5.9 million robots to keep the wheels of industry spinning just as efficiently.
Fewer workers, same output.
And here comes the win: that would cut payroll costs in half—from $785 billion to around $390 billion!
Does anyone sense a second Marxist revolution brewing in the air?
Who are the players
Tesla has introduced us to Optimus, Agility Robotics has brought forth Digit, and Boston Dynamics, always shows us their latest version of their Atlas bot. And newcomers are now entering main stage. Companies like Apptronik’s Apollo, 1XT’s Neo Beta (the little squirt), Unitree G1, and Figure AI‘s yet-to-be-named humanoid have joined the line-up.
But here’s where things get truly intriguing: a Chinese company has declared its intention to commence mass production of their own humanoid bot by 2024! This company is Fourier Intelligence and they are known for developing exoskeletons and rehabilitation robotics. A few months ago, they haveannounced plans to go into the humanoid robot market with their robot called GR-1, which goes into mass production in 2024!
The others, you ask? They are all lining up for a 2025 release. Except for the Neo, who is launching in a few select homes this year.
When will robots beat humans?
No, not literally, and don’t go firing everyone just yet.
Robos aren’t cheap, luckily.
At least not initially.
You need a second mortgage to pay for one, or sell your kidney to the highest bidder to obtain one.
ARK predicts that humanoid robots will need to hit a certain “tipping point” to make economic sense. A robot priced at $16,000 (that’s the cost of the Unitree G1) would need to improve productivity by just 5% compared to a human to break even.
…..improve productivity by just 5%
…just 5%
Elon Musk is practically the Tony Stark of our time, and he thinks that robots could end up costing less than half of a car.
Size matters in manufacturing
Big factories have an advantage here.
In massive plants, workers do one thing really well. That is where our current robots shine.
Specialization and automation make these big companies super-efficient, and they are just happy to cut labor costs as a chunk of their revenue. Smaller companies, where workers are more like Swiss Army knives who are doing a bit of everything, have not seen the same automation benefits.
Now that is where humanoid robots step in and change the game.
More robots, fewer headaches.
Labor costs are the big elephant in the room
Labor costs vary wildly in the manufacturing sector.
Think of 3% of revenue in tobacco production versus 40% in apparel.
So this means that the high labor cost areas are the prime candidates for a robot revolution.
In smaller firms, especially (where 40% of U.S. manufacturing employees work), the potential for cost savings is massive. Imagine the transformation when these firms swap out human labor.
The more I write about this, the gloomier it gets….
When robots steal our jobs and our souls
Robots everywhere, doing everything.
Jobs we once knew…gone.
Fast food cooks?
Replaced.
Machine operators? Replaced.
Even the trusty paralegals and accountants? Yep, replaced.
The machines have taken over, and they are better, faster, and cheaper. Now, what is left for us humans?
Not much you would think. Because first and foremost, work gives us an income to buy the stuff that these factories produce, and second, work gives us meaning. And without it, we are staring down the barrel of a “hellish dystopia”.
Just think about it. Millions of us sitting idle, and feeling useless.
The opioid crisis? Just a sneak peek.
Extremist groups rising? Another clue of what’s to come.
When robots are doing all the heavy lifting and brainy jobs, what will happen to us? A guaranteed minimum income, some say. Free food, shelter, maybe even a shiny smartphone. Sounds like a consolation prize in a game that we have already lost. And let’s be real, how many of us want to live in a world where our only “job” is figuring out what to do with our empty, and meaningless days?
Suuure, some jobs might survive the robo-revolution. Maybe plumbers, gardeners, maybe a few care providers who cannot be replaced by a machine. But millions will need to retrain, relearn, and reinvent themselves.
If you leave it to Elon “Toni Stark” Musk, by 2030, up to 800 million people could be out of a job and scrambling for purpose. And while he, and the other tech overlords promise new that jobs will pop up, who knows what those will be?
The Three Paths Forward
The question isn’t if but how this will shake up society.
Will it bring a golden age of efficiency, or a “hellish dystopia” as some researchers warn us about?
Likely, somewhere in between.
Research says up to 800 million jobs could disappear by 2030. No jobs means more than no money; it means no purpose, which could lead to boredom, addiction, and unrest. Tech gurus promise new jobs will emerge, but will they arrive in time and in the right numbers?
Big gamble.
So, we face three possible futures: economic collapse, a split between the robot-owning elite and the rest of us, or a balanced human-robot workforce.
1. The robo-economy crash: Research from MIT and other institutions shows that when robots take all the jobs, and humans lose their purchasing power, the economy collapses. Factories keep producing, but with no human consumers left to buy goods, companies face a crisis of oversupply. The result? An economic spiral where productivity outpaces demand.
That for sure will be leading to a depression where even the soup kitchens are automated.
2. The two-class system: A study from the International Labour Organization suggests that automation could create an even starker divide between the rich and the poor. The wealthy, own the robots and accumulate more wealth, and the rest become a permanent underclass who are relying on universal basic income. This will create a rift between robot-owning elites and the disenfranchised masses. And that will lead to societal instability. Here, the digital lords rule over a struggling populace.
A bit like medieval times, wouldn’t it?
3. The hybrid human-robot workforce: Research published in the Harvard Business Review points at a more balanced scenario. Robots take over the menial, or dangerous, or the highly repetitive tasks, and humans are employed in creative or the more strategic, or the emotional roles that machines cannot (yet) master. This hybrid model would of course rely on massive investments in education, and upskilling to make sure that humans remain part of the workforce.
What does your gut feeling say about this scenario, knowing humanity’s past?
I think that our current AI revolution will give us a little taste of what is to come.
The bottom line
As much as I love the idea of a world run by robots, I think that the economic and social implications are enormous.
Replace all the humans, and you will have no one left to buy what you’re selling.
A balanced path forward will require a lot of foresight, and a lot of humility from those who think they can simply “build the future”.
The question isn’t just what we can automate, but how we can integrate both humans and machines into a sustainable, meaningful future.
The clock is ticking, and the choices we make now will define whether we end up in a dystopia, or something a little closer to utopia.
Signing-off Marco
Well, that’s a wrap for today. Tomorrow, I’ll have a fresh episode of TechTonic Shifts for you. If you enjoy my writing and want to support my work, feel free to buy me a coffee ♨️
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