Grab your coffee, tea, or whatever keeps you going, because in this article, I’ll do some digging into how AI will change the way we work in the next decade.
Over the next ten years, AI will shift from simply augmenting tasks to taking on entire job roles, managing teams, and even overseeing entire departments.
Much of this I’ve already discussed in the articles
- Anticipating AI’s next move • article 1 •
- Anticipating AI’s next move • article 2 •
- Anticipating AI’s next move • article 3 •
- Anticipating AI’s next move • article 4 •
But that was a 50.000 foot overview, and I did not go into much detail.
So I decided to write this article is to fill the gap.
Ready to start?
Let’s go!
Before we start!
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Do more with less
AI is making a lot of waves with its ability to generate content, predict outcomes, and generally act like a digital Swiss Army knife.
And it’s not slowing down.
There are billions being poured into AI research and development.
The buzz isn’t just hype, no, it is happening.
And of course our business leaders are always looking to do more with less, which makes AI an attractive option.
After all, many jobs consist of repetitive, routine tasks that can easily be handled by algorithms. Researchers like H. James Wilson and Paul Daugherty from Harvard Business Review have highlighted how AI could augment most business functions and potentially over 40% of all work activity in the U.S.
There are plenty of companies that want to fill this gap – think of companies like Blue Prism (article: AI based Intelligent Automation: [RPA + BPM] x AI = ROI), and Fount (article: Fount helped save 13.4M in nine months with AI based work optimization).
We are on the brink of a new era where companies born in the age of AI might not even hire humans for many roles, except when absolutely necessary. These AI-native firms will show the rest of us where humans are still needed and where they are not.
Inspired by the Autonomous Driving Framework
I got inspired by the “Six Levels of Driving Automation” from the Society of Automotive Engineers.
They have developed a step-by-step framework that maps out how vehicles go from zero automation (mine), to full self-driving capabilities (not mine).
This model is quite elegant in it’s simplicity, and it breaks down each stage of automation: from the driver being fully in control, to the car taking over more and more of the driving responsibilities, all the way up to Level 5, where humans are just passengers.
This inspired me to think about how a similar framework could apply to the world of work and AI. AI in the workplace does not leap from zero to full autonomy overnight. It evolves step by step, and it takes on more complex tasks and responsibilities as it gets more capable, and trusted by its human overseers.
The beauty of this approach is that it allows people to understand where they are currently at and what is coming next. It is a roadmap for the journey ahead: where AI begins as a helpful assistant, evolving into a competent colleague, and eventually becoming the orchestrator of entire operations.
And with a framework like this, companies can better prepare for the transition phases of AI. They can also use it to understand how to use it for augmentation first, and knowing what to expect when the shift to replacement begins.
It is all about getting ahead of the curve and preparing for a future where AI isn’t just a part of the team but is leading it.
But if you prefer a more simpler version, I can recommend this one, that I got from the Ministry of Silly Walks in Canada:
Presenting: the AI Automation Framework
So I set out to develope a similar framework for understanding how AI will evolve in the workplace.
Over the next decade, AI will have a twofold impact: it will initially augment human work by taking over low-value tasks, then move towards full replacement of certain roles and responsibilities.
The shift from augmentation to replacement won’t happen overnight, but when it does, it will be fast and industry-specific.
Here is the framework. I will discuss it shortly after:
The concept of six levels of autonomous work helped me visualize how AI will evolve from assisting humans with simple tasks to potentially running entire businesses.
Researchers like Erik Brynjolfsson at Stanford University have been diving into this, showing how AI can augment human work and eventually take over more complex roles as it becomes more capable.
LEVEL 1
Level 1 is where AI starts small. It is all about handling simple, repetitive tasks. Think of things like data entry, basic customer queries, or sorting through emails.
Studies by McKinsey Global Institute have found that around 60% of all occupations have at least 30% of tasks that could be automated at this level. The AI doesn’t require deep decision-making capabilities here; it just follows a set of rules.
LEVEL 2
Level 2 sees AI managing sub-processes within a larger workflow. Here, the AI handles slightly more complex tasks that involve some decision-making. For instance, in customer service, AI can handle the initial stages of an inquiry like collecting data, verifying information, and routing the customer to the right human agent if needed.
A recent study by Gartner suggests that by 2025, nearly 80% of customer interactions could be handled by AI at this level, which includes identifying needs, solving common problems, and even upselling.
LEVEL 3
Level 3 is where AI begins to manage entire processes from start to finish. This isn’t just about handling a single task or a group of tasks..It is about taking on whole workflows. For example, AI could process customer orders, manage a case from opening to closure, or even handle complex claims in insurance.
Research from Deloitte indicates that companies adopting AI at this level see productivity increases of up to 40% in back-office operations like finance and HR, as AI takes over routine yet comprehensive processes.
LEVEL 4
Level 4 means business. It is a significant shift where AI starts to take over roles that involve multiple processes. Think of an AI that can simultaneously perform as a sales rep, marketing specialist, and customer service agent.
A report by Forrester predicts that by 2030, over 25% of current roles in these fields could be fully automated by AI capable of managing cross-functional responsibilities. At this stage, AI doesn’t just assist; it starts to own specific outcomes traditionally managed by humans.
LEVEL 5
Level 5 where AI moves into more advanced territory. Here, the AI systems manages entire teams. AI will perform not just the tasks itself but also the roles that a human manager and their direct reports would typically handle. It could run a marketing team, and delegate tasks to other AI or human agents and optimize pricing strategies based on real-time data analysis.
Research from the MIT Sloan Management Review has shown that companies leveraging AI at this level have seen improvements in team productivity and decision-making speed by up to 60%.
LEVEL 6
Level 6 is where AI reaches its full potential. Here it is orchestrating multiple teams, and even entire businesses. And at this stage, AI is running small to medium-sized enterprises and potentially large corporations, all depending on the complexity of the business rather than the number of employees. AI does not just follow set rules or manage tasks, no, it is dynamically making high-level decisions, and predicting market trends, in order to strategize for growth!
A PwC study anticipates that by 2040, fully autonomous businesses could become a reality, with AI-driven companies outperforming traditional firms by over 70% in terms of agility and scalability.
AI goes through different adoption phases
AI adoption is not one-size-fits-all.
It evolves in phases, and it starts with assisting humans and eventually taking over entire roles and responsibilities.
In this piece I’ll break down how AI moves through these stages and what it means for the future of work.
The progression from Levels 1 to 3 forms the Augmentation Phase.
In this phase, the AI serves as your digital assistant. It is helping humans focus on the more strategic and creative tasks and automating the mundane.
For example, a study by Accenture found that AI in this phase could boost employee productivity by 40% by eliminating low-value tasks.
Levels 4 to 6 represent the Replacement Phase.
Here, AI does not only assist, but it starts to replace human roles entirely.
The dynamic shifts, when AI begins to take over more substantial responsibilities and gets decision-making capabilities which are superior to humans.
According to the World Economic Forum, by 2035, up to 45% of current job roles could be fully replaced by AI at these levels, particularly in sectors like finance, customer service, and retail.
Oopsy.
The real “magic” (or hell, depending where you are coming from) happens in how AI works together with humans at each level.
At Level 1, AI and humans work together in a controlled setting, where AI is handling only the most basic and mundane tasks. And by Level 3, there is more of a partnership between AI and their human counterparts. Here, the AI is taking the lead on operational processes and the humans focus on strategic oversight. By Levels 5 and 6, AI could potentially entirely replace human decision-makers for specific roles and processes, achieving what’s called "decision dominance". (That is a term borrowed from military strategy). At Levels 5 and 6, the effectiveness of the AI will not be measured by how much human work it is replacing, but by how well it handles complexity, and accuracy. Those are factors that go beyond human capabilities. And companies that can wield this power will set the pace for their industries. And they will leave those stuck in traditional human-centric models far behind.
Brace, brace, brace!
All businesses must be prepared for this journey from augmentation to replacement.
Research from Oxford University suggests that companies that integrate AI into their business models early on will not only survive but will win in this transition. And those that delay will struggle to catch up.
They will find themselves overrun by more agile, AI-driven competitors.
The SUDA model: Sense, Understand, Decide, Act which I took from the book Boundless, is a good guide that you can use if you are businesses using AI.
It will help you react quickly and smartly to changes.
First, use AI to sense shifts in the market or customer behavior. Then, understand these signals with AI tools like predictive modeling. And then, decide the best action based on these insights. And finally, act fast. Whether it is launching a new product or fixing a process.
This model will help you move quickly from sensing a change to taking action. Just look it up if you feel like it.
It is the Second Digital Transformation
AI is not just a tool! It is the Second Digital Transformation. It is more than using software. It is about machines learning, deciding, and acting.
The first digital transformation was about moving from paper to digital. It was about using computers, software, and the internet to speed up work. Businesses started to rely on digital tools for things like ordering, customer support, employee productivity and whatnot. This first transformation made companies faster and more connected. It changed how we work and communicate.
But that is just the beginning.
We must start to see that AI as a force that will reshape everything.
Those who prepare with strong data strategies, streamlined processes, and a clear plan for AI’s phases: first helping, then replacing, will lead the way.
The future with AI is uncertain and fast-moving. But it is also full of new chances for those ready to adapt and embrace this change.
So, the real question is: are you ready to make AI your next competitive advantage?
Signing-off Marco
Well, that’s a wrap for today. Tomorrow, I’ll have a fresh episode of TechTonic Shifts for you. If you enjoy my writing and want to support my work, feel free to buy me a coffee ♨️
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