Daniel Kokotajlo is a former OpenAI employee, and he has shared a few predictions about the future of AI. Why would we take this guy serious? Well for starters, cause he’s got a decent track record.
And he predicted the current hype with eerie precision back in 2021.
The insights he is talking about span from 2024 to 2029.
He talks about AI models, the rise of AGI, and the leap to artificial superintelligence (ASI), AI-Assistants and more. And the cool thing is that his predictions show just how fast AI is evolving.
Before we start!
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So where were we….Daniel Kokotajlo used to work at OpenAI, and he has some thoughts on where AI is headed.
He thinks we’ll see big changes from 2024 to 2029. This includes the “arrival” of AGI and possibly ASI.
By the way, the same guy was spot on in 2021 about the AI hype.
So here’s a list of take-aways:
- By 2024, expect new AI models to drop (he mentioned GPT-Next, but we have seen glimpses of GPT-5/Strawberry already).
- In 2025, AI personal assistants will likely go mainstream. This will boost productivity.
- AGI might arrive in 2026. It could outperform humans in most tasks.
- By 2027, ASI could lead to an intelligence explosion. It might solve complex problems.
- Nanobots might revolutionize various fields by 2028.
- By 2029, humanoid robots could join the workforce. They might work alongside us.
AI is about to go through some major changes in the next five years.
It will reshape industries and society for more then it has done already.
Kokotajlo’s predictions highlight AI’s potential, and the need to prepare for its challenges and opportunities. Back in 2021, he accurately predicted the AI hype. And the focus on AI’s common sense understanding. Companies like OpenAI, Google, and Meta have been at the forefront of this.
Looking to 2024, Kokotajlo expects the release of GPT-Next: that will be an advanced AI with better task completion and decision-making. Major tech companies will likely push out new AI models.
By 2025, AI personal assistants will probably become the norm (This year, with GPT-5 | Strawberry, we’ll see the first AI-Assistants from OpenAI entering the market). They will handle complex tasks and boost productivity.
This is going to be a big step in AI’s evolution (if you want to read up on AI-Assistants, read some of my other articles on this topic here, here, and here, also here, and there, here as well, over there, oh here as well, and about here…, there, where? oh there, and elsewhere, way out there, and a bit over here as well).
So, Kokotajlo’s timeline includes the possible emergence of AGI in 2026.
To be straight. AGI does not mean conscious AI. But super intelligent PhD level AI.
AGI could outperform humans in most tasks. It will learn and solve problems quickly across various fields. This would change our interaction with technology. And lead to huge advancements.
In 2027, he says that we might see ASI.
This could lead to an intelligence explosion, and drive tech progress in unpredictable ways. The fast pace of AI development could transform the economy and society.
Besides AI, Kokalo predicts when advances in nanobots and humanoid robots happen.
By 2028, nanobots could become a game-changer.
Nanobots are miniscule little robots that operate on the nano-scale. That means these are machines you cannot see with the naked eye. They could impact medicine (drug delivery), manufacturing, or environmental cleanup. These little doohickeys could tackle problems that were once unsolvable.
By 2029, humanoid robots might overcome current obstacles. Like Optimus (Musk), and Figure (OpenAI backed). They could become part of the workforce, working alongside humans. Major advancements in robotics will make it possible for them to integrate into the workforce.
Well, if they just stop killing themselves, that is.
And that will cause AI to integrate further into our daily lives.
Well, what made these revelations clear to me, is that the coming lustrum will be full of geeky tech joy, and stuff to play with. Or our ultimate doom.
Here’s a video for more information on the revelations:
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